中国第5次出手控价！铁矿石价格应声下跌，澳大利亚好日子到头？
发布时间：2021-05-17 16:01
<p><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify;"></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify;">今年以来，铁矿石涨价程度实属历史罕见。</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify;">4月27日，普氏62％铁矿石指数达到193.85美元/吨，创10年高位，打破历史纪录；</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify;">这一火热程度此后并未降温，5月6日，普氏铁矿石指数达到202.65美元/吨，为历史首次突破200美元/吨大关；</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify;">5月11日，普氏铁矿石指数更是达到229.55美元/吨，创历史最高位。</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify;">在此背景下，中国出手了，而指望靠着铁矿石翻盘的澳大利亚好日子也到头了。</span></p><p><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify;"><br/></span></p><p><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify;"></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal;">中国5次出手限价，铁矿石价格天花板到了？</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal;"><br/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal;">为了遏制铁矿石价格疯狂上涨的势头，5月11日-12日，大连商品交易所、上海期货交易所以及郑州交易所先后采取了提高铁矿石合约交易限额和保证金等方式，防止市场炒作过度；5月14日，唐山及上海相关部门分别对本市的所有钢铁企业进行约谈，两者均明确提醒钢铁企业要严格遵守行业规则，规范价格行为，不得捏造、散布涨价信息，扰乱市场价格秩序等，违者将受到处罚。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal;"><br/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal;">事实上，为了限价铁矿石，中国钢铁工业协会早已接连出手。4月27日，中钢协对外表态，下一步将加大国内外铁矿石的开发开采力度，提高钢铁工业资源保障能力；3月份，中钢协还分别会见了大商所、上交所、郑交所等主要资本市场的交易机构，建议重建价格机制；而去年12月底，中钢协就推动新一轮的铁矿石价格形成机制的改革，与海外三大矿商争夺铁矿石价格的定价权。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal;"><br/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal;">在中国5次出手限价之后，5月14日，铁矿石主力合约盘中10％跌停，收盘跌超7％。业界声音指出，按此态势来看，铁矿石价格天花板怕是已经到了。但这对于澳大利亚来说，并不是一个好消息。</p><p></p><p><br/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both;">这是因为中国铁矿石对外依存度超过80％，其中很大一部分进口来自澳大利亚。例如，2019年澳大利亚铁矿石占中国铁矿石进口总量比重达62％。随着铁矿石价格不断上涨，我国进口成本也越来越高，2021年一季度，我国铁矿石进口平均价格为150.79美元/吨，同比上涨64.51％。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both;"><br/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both;">与此同时，背靠铁矿石的澳大利亚也顺利回血。今年一季度，澳对华出口额达337亿美元（约合2170亿元人民币），同比增长20.7％</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both;"><br/></p><p></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal;">中国多管齐下，澳大利亚7918亿出口目标恐落空！</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal;"><br/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal;">换而言之，要真正遏制铁矿石价格上涨，最根本的方法是打破澳铁矿石在华市场一家独大的局面。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal;"><br/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal;">为此，中国早已“多管齐下”。对内方面，我国已经采取提高国内铁矿石产量、铁金属自给率，和削减粗钢产量等措施，数据显示，2020年全年中国铁矿石累计产量达到86671.7万吨，累计增长3.7％。对外方面，中国则坚持推行铁矿石进口多元化、加大印度、非洲等国铁矿进口量，还有通过股权收购、资产收购和合资、合营等方式获得海外矿源。</p><p><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify;"><br/></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal;">更重要的是，自2021年5月1日起，我国将调整部分钢铁产品关税，并取消146种钢铁相关产品出口退税。通过上述调整措施，有利于降低进口成本，扩大钢铁资源进口，支持国内压减粗钢产量。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal;"><br/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal;">此外，5月14日，澳大利亚贸易部长丹·特汉承认曾写信给中国，希望能重启双方对话，但4个月都没等到回信。由于澳大利亚对中澳所持的态度，在5月6日，中国已宣布决定无限期暂停中澳战略经济对话机制下的一切活动。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal;"><br/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal;">在此背景下，此前澳预计20/21年度铁矿石出口收入将增加至1230亿美元（约合7918亿元人民币）的目标恐怕难以实现。</p><p><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; text-align: justify;"><br/></span></p>
